Existing Home Sales Rising
The national media are reporting that home sales have bottomed. It's true that new home sales are falling in all regions of the United States. But in the western United States , including the Imperial Valley, existing home sales volumes have risen sharply.
To get a more reliable picture of the housing market on a local level, it's more accurate to track 12-months of total sales.
While existing home sales continue to fall elsewhere, the decline is at a much slower rate in recent months.
Recent national headlines based on Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data are misleading. Reporters have been trained to cover the SA numbers monthly. SA number have merit, however they are volitile due to sample size, weather and other issues such as holidays and other factors. These issues are more than likely covered in the body of the article, or in the later stages of a TV report, but most people do not pay attention to those details.
To get a more reliable picture of the housing market on a local level, it's more accurate to track 12-months of total sales. When the rolling 12-month line begins to or has flattened, year over year sales have equaled and the formation of a bottom may be forming. This data has some seasonal issues too, however it is less prone to the wild and overly optimistic headlines that accompany other reports using the SA data alone.
The 12-month rolling sales are calculated by taking the total of monthly sales and establishing a total number, then the first month in the 12-month set is subtracted while the next month is added. This process is repeated to show a smoothing out of the monthly sales swings.